1. According to the official numbers, Covid-19 is slowing down in Delhi. The new cases have dropped from an average of 34,00 per day during the week beginning June 19 to just an average of 1400 per day in the past week.
2. However, testing has increased nearly threefold from an average of 7,000 per day to almost 20,000 per day currently. The decline in the number of cases along with a constant testing rate points to decreasing levels of infection in Delhi.
3. Such a trend where cases fall but testing remain constant is usually a sign of an epidemic passing its peak. Since that is clearly not the case with the capital, What is actually happening?
4. The Wire in the article states that an increasing proportion of the tests being conducted in Delhi were rapid antigen tests had increased from 40% by the end of June to 70% presently.
5. How this is important is that rapid tests are not considered to be very sensitive. This means that they miss identifying a lot of infections.
6. The sensitivity of the rapid tests is still unknown as their estimates range from 15% TO 84%. Although the cases may have dropped, the switch to rapid antigen testing is creating a blurry image of the real trends.