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There is an equation that calculates how long a conspiracy can remain hidden.

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Concerning the "hoax" Apollo 11 lunar landing: Keeping a secret of that size would have been extremely difficult—far more difficult than you may expect. David Robert Grimes, a physicist and cancer biologist, devised a mathematical equation that calculates how many people it would take to keep a conspiracy hidden and how long it would take for that conspiracy to be revealed to the public. The calculation considers the number of conspirators, the amount of time that has passed, and the likelihood of a whistleblower. He honed his results using three real-life conspiracies: the Edward Snowden NSA controversy, the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, and an FBI forensics scandal that revealed pseudoscientific eviden

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